The project has conducted Taiwan’s long-term low-carbon scenario forecast in five main regions, including economy growth development, and the database of energy and air pollution diffusion by Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) with factor analysis. The results of first stage sectoral simulation and recommendations of low-carbon strategies are accomplished from sectors of energy, industry, resident, service and commerce, and transportation towards 2030 scenario. The assessed results from environmental and energy co-benefits as well as cost analysis reveal notable characteristics difference in five regions. The second year project is to continue using the LEAP model to explore the localized data and input formats required to construct nationally environmental integration assessment model for 2050 scenario. Through utilizing regional analysis by the LEAP model based on the input-output model to simulate low carbon path and mitigation potential; the results of assessment are also further linked to air pollutant diffusion model (CMAQ) and health assessment model (BenMap) for evaluating possible co-benefits. The integrated assessment model is applied with varied models of economy, energy, greenhouse gases (GHGs), air pollution diffusion and health benefits that can provide valuable information regarding to GHG mitigation and air pollution prevention for policymakers from the central authorities and local governments as reference. Under the LEAP modeling framework, the project has expanded and renewed the existing database for further assessment; meanwhile, the energy consumption database of agricultural sector has also added into the database this year. The renewed database in this project are then used for analyzing sectoral GHG emission trends, air pollutant deduction effects, and relevant mitigation costs. In this project, the method of air diffusion model and linked co-benefits on health is constructed from simulated results of the LEAP model. The low-carbon strategy of energy sector by regions has achieved for evaluating potential environmental impacts and health benefits, which can be further applied to other sectors. To deliberate future possible trends in varied low-carbon scenarios, the simulated results are expressed by variation rate in percentage to baseline scenario including final energy demands, GHG emission amounts and air pollutant emission amounts. The analyzed results reveal that the energy sector contributes more than 47% GHG deduction rate towards 2050 scenario compared to baseline scenario (BAU) based on the social and economic condition trends of expected annual growth rate of GDP per capita in 2.8% from 2017 to 2050, and average growth rate of population per capita in -0.4%. The remaining sectors also show GHG deduction contributions as follows: industry sector (39.8%), residential sector (4.5%), service ＆ commerce sector (5.1%), transportation (3.5%) and agriculture (0.1%), respectively. Compared to the results from the BAU scenario, most analyzed results of regional air pollutant diffusion assessment show decreasing trends in long-term low-carbon scenario. In the low carbon scenario of the power sector, the improvement in air quality has reduced NTD 48.9 billion of the population death, and the reduction in hospitalized monetization value is about NTD 9.54 million by 2050. In addition, the project has assisted Taiwan EPA to hold “2018 Taiwan-UK Climate Change Forum” in order to explore international information exchange channel for modeling policy development with scholars and expertise to addressing the valuable information for policymakers and international cooperation. The LEAP model has now proven that can provide a convenient platform to assess multiple scenario results with available database and proper social/economy assumption in this project. The helpful results can be referenced for future policymakers for varied policy implementation effectiveness. However, it is also found that few statistic and investigating database is short or uncompleted for several businesses and transportation methods. The research team will continue collecting sectoral energy consumption data for further analyzing under the LEAP model for the Taiwan EPA as policy making reference.

Greenhouse Gas, Environment Effect, Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System